Bernstein Sees 77% Upside for Coinbase as Bitcoin Reclaims $78K

By Lidia Yadlos

Coinbase has spent much of 2026 moving with the crypto market: down sharply when Bitcoin struggled, then racing higher as BTC recovered.

Bernstein thinks Wall Street is still underestimating what the company could become.

The investment firm is sticking with its $330 price target on Coinbase, one of the most bullish calls on Wall Street. With COIN trading around $189 on August 24, the target implies roughly 75% upside and would add tens of billions of dollars to Coinbase's current market capitalization of approximately $50 billion.

The call comes despite three consecutive earnings misses and a second quarter in which revenue and adjusted EBITDA both fell short of expectations. Bernstein's argument is that quarterly trading results increasingly tell only part of the Coinbase story as stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets and subscription revenue become larger parts of the business.

Bitcoin Is Giving Coinbase Another Tailwind

The timing of Bernstein's call has become more interesting following Bitcoin's latest breakout.

BTC is trading around $77,500, up roughly 22% over the past week, after briefly reaching a three-month high near $79,500. The rally has been supported by renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, improving macro conditions and optimism around U.S. crypto regulation.

Coinbase has responded even more aggressively. COIN has gained roughly 25% over the past week, slightly outperforming Bitcoin during the latest rally.

That relationship still matters enormously. When Bitcoin rises sharply, trading activity tends to increase across Coinbase's retail, institutional and derivatives businesses, giving the exchange an immediate revenue benefit from stronger crypto markets.

But Bernstein's $330 thesis depends on Coinbase becoming less reliant on those cycles.

The Q2 Numbers Look Better Beneath the Headline

Coinbase reported $1.22 billion in second-quarter revenue, below Wall Street's roughly $1.30 billion expectation and down 18.5% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at approximately $208 million, compared with analyst expectations of about $302 million.

Those numbers explain some of Wall Street's caution. Other metrics tell a different story.

Coinbase captured a record 10.3% of global crypto trading volume during Q2, up from 9.1% in Q1, marking its third consecutive quarter of market-share gains even as the overall market weakened. Its derivatives business also recorded a third consecutive quarter of record market share.

Coinbase's own results show another significant shift: 88% of Q2 net revenue came from businesses other than Bitcoin spot trading. Subscription and Services revenue reached $555 million, making the company considerably less dependent on simply collecting fees whenever retail investors buy and sell BTC.

Stablecoins Are Becoming a Major Business

USDC is increasingly important to that diversification. Average USDC held across Coinbase products reached an all-time high of $20 billion during Q2, giving the company substantial exposure to one of crypto's fastest-growing markets.

Stablecoin revenue is attractive because it doesn't require users to constantly trade. Coinbase earns economics from USDC balances and related activity, creating a more recurring revenue stream than traditional transaction fees.

That matters if crypto eventually begins behaving more like financial infrastructure and less like a market driven primarily by speculative trading cycles.

Prediction Markets Are Growing Faster Than Expected

Prediction markets have also moved from experiment to meaningful business surprisingly quickly.

Coinbase reported that prediction-market contracts and revenue increased 106% quarter over quarter during Q2. The business has now surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue, while newer crypto binary products helped drive another jump in daily users and activity.

That expansion fits Coinbase's broader ambition to become an "everything exchange," where users can trade crypto, derivatives, tokenized assets and event contracts from one platform.

Bernstein has argued that Coinbase's expansion across derivatives, stablecoins and other products could support approximately 26% compound annual revenue growth through 2027.

Wall Street Is Still Divided

Not everyone shares Bernstein's enthusiasm. Coinbase remains one of the most difficult major financial stocks to value because analysts disagree over whether it should trade like an exchange, a crypto proxy, a fintech company or a broader financial platform.

That uncertainty has produced an unusually wide range of price targets.

Bernstein's $330 target sits at the bullish end of current forecasts, while other analysts see considerably less upside. The gap reflects two very different views of Coinbase: one values the company primarily on today's trading revenue, while the other assigns greater value to businesses that are still developing.

The $330 Question

Bitcoin's recent rally toward $80,000 has already helped push COIN sharply higher, demonstrating how quickly improving crypto sentiment can flow through to the stock. But the reverse remains equally true: another prolonged decline in digital assets would likely hit trading volumes and Coinbase shares regardless of how quickly newer businesses grow.

The difference compared with previous cycles is that Coinbase now has more businesses capable of generating revenue when retail spot trading slows.

It has captured a record share of crypto trading. USDC balances on the platform have reached $20 billion. Prediction markets are growing at triple-digit quarterly rates. Derivatives market share is setting records. Subscription and Services generated more than half a billion dollars in one quarter.

That is ultimately the bet behind Bernstein's $330 target.

At around $189 per share, the market is still valuing Coinbase heavily on what happens to crypto prices next. Bernstein is betting that stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets and other financial products eventually make the price of Bitcoin only one part of the Coinbase story.

Published on Coinbase

Bernstein Sees 77% Upside for Coinbase as Bitcoin Reclaims $78K